![]() The last touchdown scorer offers an even more random outcome than the first. Matching up against a rookie on the biggest stage is a spot to target, which is why Godwin looks like the clear value play to score the first Super Bowl touchdown. L’Jarius Sneed has started to get credit as the best rookie cornerback of 2020, but he doesn’t even have the best coverage grade among Chiefs cornerbacks. If forced to choose, I would go with Godwin. Hitting Rob Gronkowski covers most of the target share opportunity for Buccaneers pass-catchers, and all have long enough odds to justify a small play on each. Cameron Brate ran a route on 32% of dropbacks last week, so he looks like a clear fade at shorter odds despite others hyping him as a viable play. Popular long shots coming from the tight end position appear to be appropriately priced based on recent usage. Antonio Brown’s questionable status lends further credence to both Buccaneers receivers having a slightly better probability than their less than 10% implied chance of doing so. Given this expectation, it is easy to see value in either Evans or Chris Godwin to be the first touchdown scorer at greater than +1000 odds. The Buccaneers started out their conference championship victory futility by pounding the ball to Leonard Fournette before getting bailed out by Tom Brady and Mike Evans on third down. We don’t have to look too far back to see the perfect example. The first touchdown of the game has a distinct preference for a passing touchdown, as it has an implied probability of 63%. It is close enough where it shouldn’t factor too much into our decision-making, but other bets offer further clues. This is counter to the first team to score a touchdown wager, which lists the Chiefs as slight favorites at -130. The expectation is that Reid will defer all the time if given the opportunity, so if we assume Arians isn’t as close to a lock, we can find some potential value in the Buccaneers players to score the first touchdown. In his first season for the Buccaneers, he has started to side more with deferring but still has a couple of recent examples of choosing to receive the ball. In 2017, he split the difference, deferring and receiving five times each. ![]() Arians deferred just once on 33 coin toss victories between 20. Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians is much more of a wild card, as his gunslinger mentality also extends to his pregame decision-making. There might be no greater lock in the Super Bowl than Reid deferring the opening kickoff if the Chiefs win the toss. Reid appears to have had a philosophical change in between seasons, as he won a coin toss and received in all nine situations in 2013 but has now deferred on 61 straight coin toss wins since then. The 2008 deferment rule took some time for adjustment but has finally ushered in a majority of coaches waiting until the second half to receive the ball if given the choice.Īs one Reddit user has documented, Kansas City head coach Andy Reid has deferred every single time for the Chiefs since the 2014 season. ![]() Let’s take a close look at how each of these markets sets up at the macro level before diving into the best bets based on expected outcomes. There is some expected game script, which could help us find value opportunities when using our projections to peg the most likely touchdown scorers. As random as these two markets are, there are some ways to extract betting value.īooks offer the same odds for a player to score the first or last touchdown, which is based solely on their expectation of that player scoring in that game. There is an added randomness to targeting the first and last touchdown scoring markets, but they both offer the chance to turn modest risk into substantial gains given the odds associated with this multi-way bet. This can make it a frustrating proposition when the focus of your betting interest carries an offense downfield only for the score to be vultured by a goal-line carry. ![]() From a fantasy football perspective, it’s the least reliable stat we attempt to project.
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